Friday, March 7, 2008
If you are saying to yourself that it seems like the market gets worse eveyday, you are not alone. If you have been following our posts we have guided one through the warning signs that the market has been producing and today's employement report just tipped the scales in favor of the fact that we are now in a reccession. What makes matters worse is everytime Bernanke lowers the Fed Funds rate it lowers the dollar which in turn raises the price of oil. Today's move 15 minuets before the job report was released that it will boost the size of auctions planned for March 10th and March 24th to $50 Billion dollars, shows a bad timing issue with the Fed and how they deliver the news. When it hit the wire about their plan to boost auction size was a major tip off that the Jobs report was going to come in worse than expected. I feel like I am watching a car wreck as it is happening. If I were a gambling man, I would love to play against Bernanke for he tends to show the ladies before he makes the bet. Big picture time, Boomers are about to retire, market is melting like ice cream, Mortgages are what started this whole mess, and Banks for the most part are insolvnet. The Fed needs to let the market weed out the weak and let the strong survive. We all know the saying. "It gets worse before it gets better." But I wonder if they ever considered the fact that if the Fed keeps pulling the bandaid off the wounded economy will it ever heal?
Friday, February 29, 2008
Have you ever had a headache that starts then fades a little only to come back worse later in the day? Well the market is doing the same as well. The last day of trading for February showed that many of the economic hang overs left with us from the housing mess are still lingering. Credit and Commerical real estate are next up on the menu. To make matters worse it seems that when Bernanke speaks the market leaks. The Dollar seems to have been given a set of cement shoes and continues it free fall against many other currencies. Looking at the charts that have been completely destroyed seem ready to start picking out burial plots for there next move to the six feet under crowd. Do not get me wrong, I would like to see some market recovery, but it seems that no money is coming in to rescue the market from itself, and feels that recession is not avoidable. Two factors that are giving us clues that downward it the path of choice is Oil is trying to breakout higher and gold the inflation indicator is ticking higher each day. Think any of the items are effecting the everyday consumer? Try one of the following: Fill your gas tank, Buy a gallon of milk, purchase some bread. Any one or all will cost more to do than just a year ago and add that up weekly and see how it impacts your pocket book. The only piece left for this jig saw puzzle is higher unemployment. So if the market is giving you warning signs that slippery roads are ahead, slow down or pull aside and let the storm pass through.
Monday, February 11, 2008
It just goes beyond belief how many investors and traders alike give up so many profits trying to trade a market that is out of favor due to the fear of missing profits. Think of it this way. The market is like a highway to wealth if one understands how to navigate the roads, sorry folks no GPS is available. If one does pay attention to the signs that the market produces one can easily avoid trading the turbulent(S curves you cannot see around.) times and invest or trade when the market is somewhat safer.(Like driving on a flat highway were you can see traffic far ahead.) When you drove to work today how many Stop Signs did you use to travel in the right direction? Cannot remember? That’s ok, but if you were to go back and look and count you would be surprised how many. Think of the Stop Signs like warnings the market give investors and traders alike as clues when to exit and enter the market. If you were paying attention to those Stop Signs it was pretty clear that a meltdown was coming. Go back and look at November and December of 2007. Most stocks were starting to somewhat head down, (Stop Sign) giving you a chance to start reducing your exposure to the market. Then on 01/04/08 the market sent a big billboard (Stop Sign) that for the next few months will be tough to say the least. So When Trading the market, pay attention to those Stop Signs or Clues that it produces, for it will help keep your portfolio vehicle on the road and free from any road rage…
Friday, February 1, 2008
This week was a turbulent market to say the least. The question that now has to be addressed is Mr. Bernanke a shear genius or just a jester to the market? Only time will tell as this market unravels. The scary part is that if inflation decides to take a bite out of the consumer, will there be enough bullets left in the chamber to deal with? I thought that being the Fed chairman, one was not to be influenced by the market when making fed policy? At the moment it does not appear to be that way. As soon as the announcment was made of the additonal .50 cut to the federal funds rate, the stock market seals were already barking for more. I have seen this type of reaction before in may last visit to Sea World. Tough job to say the least but if he lets the market influence his decsion, then it will blow up just like this mortgage malaise. Oh yeah the market also created this mortgage mess as well. Thanks a bunch! The say a picture is worth a thousand words.
Best of Trades,
Jason T. Campbell